Greater Manchester, traditionally a Labour stronghold, has shown signs of political volatility in recent years. While Labour remains dominant in areas like Manchester, Salford, and Oldham, the 2023 and 2024 local elections saw increasing voter disillusionment, with turnout low and support for smaller parties and independents on the rise. Reform UK, which positions itself as an anti-establishment, pro-Britain alternative, has been quietly capitalising on this frustration.
In areas such as Bolton, Wigan, and Rochdale, where working-class communities have felt ignored by Labour and unimpressed by the Conservatives, Reform UK has started building a voter base. Their message — focused on immigration control, low taxation, and law and order — is resonating with voters who feel left behind by both major parties.
Bolton is shaping up to be one of Reform UK’s most promising battlegrounds. In recent elections, the town has seen sharp swings away from both Labour and the Conservatives, with voters increasingly backing independent and populist candidates. Their focus on local issues like crime, council mismanagement, and the cost of living has struck a chord in working-class areas such as Farnworth, Breightmet, and Kearsley. With the Conservative vote continuing to collapse and Labour’s dominance far from secure, Reform is poised to expand its presence on Bolton Council in 2026.
Dan Barker, Reform UK’s Greater Manchester Area Organiser and former Mayoral candidate said: “We are finalising the setup of a local Branch network across Greater Manchester to cover all 27 parliamentary constituencies with an ambition to challenge every council seat up for election across the ten Boroughs.
“In terms of developing our ground campaign, we have the tools and techniques that are tried and tested and are rolling this out amongst our campaign teams, as evidenced by recent by-election wins in Rochdale and Stalybridge which saw us take council seats off Labour with large vote margins.
“Greater Manchester has been a Labour heartland for a long time, but judging by the feedback on the doorstep and recent election results there is a growing disillusionment with the party and an appetite for change. Labour-led councils around Greater Manchester are seen by many as incompetent, wasteful and tone-deaf to the real priorities that matter to local people.
“Reform UK plans to build on recent successes seen across the country in the local elections in May 2025 where we won outright control of ten councils and two mayoral seats in England.
“In Greater Manchester, Reform aims to win council seats to become the main opposition and eventually take control of these councils so that we can start to deliver value for money public services that meet the needs and priorities of local people.”
Salford is also emerging as a key target for Reform. The party made headlines in 2024 after a strong performance in the Eccles and Worsley areas, where frustration with Labour’s long-standing control and perceived inaction on housing, crime, and local services helped fuel their rise. Reform UK has tapped into concerns over the pace of development, lack of investment in outer suburbs, and poor public transport infrastructure.
If the party continues to build its profile with credible local candidates and community engagement, it could win its first council seats in wards like Little Hulton, Barton & Winton, Walkden North, Ordsall, Broughton, and Weaste & Seedley, in 2026 disrupting Labour’s dominance in one of its traditional heartlands.
The Conservatives have become increasingly active in Blackfriars, Ordsall, and the Quays following the influx of professionals who work in the city.
If the Conservatives retain their relatively safe wards of Worsley, Kersal, and make gains in Walkden South, Swinton Park, and Irlam and Cadishead, there could be a Reform/Tory coalition running the City of Salford.
One source within Reform Salford said their intention is to smash Labour into a thousand pieces ahead of the general election.
Sources within Salford Labour have hinted at a fight for the Salford Constituency seat. Rebecca Long-Bailey may face a challenge from City Mayor Paul Dennett who’s set to step down in 2028.
Although it’s said she’s ‘quietly confident’ her socialist credentials will see off any challenges.
It’s understood Dennett’s power-base stems from local councillors, whereas Long-Bailey’s support comes from the wider membership.
In recent months long-standing councillors such as John Warmisham and former council leader Bill Hinds have left the Labour Party.
Hinds is well respected locally and oversaw the initial redevelopments of Salford Quays and the construction of the Lowry Theatres during his time as leader of Salford council.
Labour will be under immense pressure from both the left, such as the Lib Dems and Greens in the centre of Salford, and Reform and Tories to the west of the city.
Reform UK is also quietly laying the groundwork in Trafford, Wigan, and Oldham — areas where voter fatigue with the political establishment is growing. In Trafford, a traditionally Conservative–Labour battleground, Reform has begun attracting support in wards like Partington and Sale Moor, where residents express growing concerns about crime, development, and public services.
In Wigan, a Labour-dominated borough, working-class discontent over housing, local neglect, and council transparency is creating an opening for Reform, particularly in areas like Leigh South and Ince.
Oldham, long plagued by economic challenges and community tensions, is also fertile ground for Reform’s message of change. If the party continues to invest in local visibility and fields well-known community figures, it could score unexpected upsets in 2026 — or, at the very least, shift the narrative in places long considered safe seats for Labour.
One of Reform UK’s biggest strengths lies in its ability to attract the protest vote. Voters fed up with the status quo often view Reform as a viable “none of the above” option. This could prove critical in council elections, where turnout tends to be low and margins tight. In a close race, even a few hundred extra votes can make a difference.
In areas like Bury North, Heywood, and Leigh, where Conservative support has collapsed and Labour’s grip is slipping, Reform UK may well leapfrog over both parties in specific wards, especially if they field strong, local candidates.
However, turning protest sentiment into actual seats won’t be easy. Local elections are won on organisation and local presence, not just national branding. Reform UK has been criticised in the past for lacking local infrastructure and experienced campaigners.
For Labour, the threat is erosion in traditional strongholds by a populist party that appeals to disaffected voters. For the Conservatives, especially in areas where they once held council seats but are now retreating, Reform UK poses a challenge in reclaiming working-class votes.
With the Conservatives likely to still be reeling from national losses, Reform UK could position itself as the new voice of opposition in councils that have been run by Labour for decades.
While it’s unlikely Reform UK will take control of any Greater Manchester councils outright in 2026, the realistic ambition is to win footholds: If successful, this would give them a platform to build upon for 2027 and beyond.
