Labour is bracing for what insiders fear could be a devastating by-election defeat in Gorton and Denton, with Reform UK now widely seen as best placed to capitalise on a perfect storm of voter anger and political fragmentation.
Andy Burnham remains a heavyweight name — but behind closed doors, Labour figures admit confidence is draining fast. The reason? A growing belief that the anti-Reform vote could splinter beyond repair.
Party strategists are increasingly alarmed by the risk of multiple challengers tearing chunks out of Labour’s traditional base. George Galloway is being widely tipped by allies to consider a run, a move Labour fears could siphon off thousands of protest votes.
At the same time, activists linked to Jeremy Corbyn’s “Your Party” are openly discussing standing candidates in Labour heartlands — a prospect that has set off alarm bells inside HQ.
And Labour is also watching the Green Party, which insiders warn could attract younger and environmentally-minded voters who might otherwise hold their nose and vote Labour.
None of this guarantees a Reform victory — but Labour fears it could make one possible.
“If the vote fragments the way we’re modelling,” one insider said, “Reform don’t need a majority — they just need everyone else fighting.”
That fear has pushed Reform into pole position in private Labour briefings, with campaigners warning that even a modest Reform surge could be enough if Labour’s support is bled away on the Left.
Burnham’s Greater Manchester record, once Labour’s shield, is now being scrutinised from every angle. Transport headaches, policing concerns and cost-of-living pressures are feeding a volatile mood — and Reform are betting that anger matters more than loyalty.
Reform insiders insist they are not taking anything for granted, and will fight for every vote across the constituency.
