Senior Labour Party figures fear a string of humiliating defeats in Greater Manchester, with the GM Mayor, Salford Mayor, and Gorton and Denton seat possibly up for grabs.
Labour’s grip on Greater Manchester could be severely tested if Andy Burnham steps down as regional mayor to seek a return to Westminster — with both Reform UK and George Galloway’s Workers Party positioning to challenge him in a volatile political climate.
Burnham is widely expected to seek the Gorton and Denton parliamentary seat if the current suspended Labour MP steps aside, a move that would spark a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election.
Polling numbers show that Reform UK could be running the Police, Fire Brigade, and Transport in Greater Manchester within the next few months if a by-election is called.
Reform UK has built a solid base in parts of Tameside and Manchester’s eastern districts, appealing to voters angry about the cost of living, immigration, and policing. But Burnham could also face pressure from George Galloway, whose Workers Party of Britain has previously performed strongly in parts of Greater Manchester by mobilising voters dissatisfied with Labour’s stance on Gaza.
If both parties field strong candidates, Labour strategists fear Burnham could face a humiliating defeat.
Should Burnham vacate the Greater Manchester mayoralty, Salford Mayor Paul Dennett is expected to run to replace him — a decision that would trigger a Salford mayoral by-election, with insiders believe Reform will ‘walk it’.
“The local political map is shifting fast,” said one Reform UK organiser. “People across Greater Manchester are questioning Labour’s record and looking for something different.”
Labour sources privately concede that a combination of voter fatigue, economic frustration, and international tensions could make upcoming contests “unpredictable and potentially dangerous” for the party.
With Burnham’s future uncertain and multiple elections potentially looming, Greater Manchester could soon become the key battleground testing whether Labour’s dominance in the North can withstand the challenge from populist movements on both the right and left.
